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What If The Scots Say “Yes” ?

08 September 2014 by HCM

It was a generally quiet session as no geopolitical headline hit the wires, and no trillion asset purchase program was announced. The market had so far largely ignored the outcome of the referendum taking place on the 18th September which will decide whether Scotland will be independent for the first time in more than 300 years. A “No” to independence has largely been taken for granted until this week-end, when a YouGov poll predicted a “Yes” victory (a very narrow one and contradicted by other polls it has to be said) for the first time since such polls have been conducted. Such an outcome raises a number of questions regarding the future Scot currency, its central bank and interest setting policy among many others. Investors are not convinced all these issues have been addressed comprehensively. They think that business will inevitably be affected across the board. Financial institutions appear to be on the frontline and UK banks were unsurprisingly under pressure.