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Shall Polls Be Trusted?

02 November 2016 by lberuti

By this time next week we may know who the next president of the United States of America is going to be, but right now the outcome of the vote is far from certain, contrary to what most people thought only a week ago. Democratic contender Hillary Clinton has seen her odds of a victory falter after the FBI reopened a probe into an e-mail server, and election blues has hit the market as an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll published yesterday showed Donald Trump ahead for the first time since May. 1% currently separates the 2 candidates, which is well within the survey’s 3% margin of sample error though. But as recently as this week-end, Mrs Clinton was having a similar lead, and it is this seemingly swing in momentum which is unsettling investors. They fear Trump’s victory could lead to more volatility and flight to safety, and they take chips off the table heading into next week. From its tightest level (74bps) reached on the 24th October, CDXIG Series 27 has widened 7 sessions in a row to 80.5bps at the end of the European session today and is closing fast on its widest level (81bps) reached on the 21st September.