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LADLN (Ladbrokes): A Losing Bet

08 May 2015 by lberuti

The results of the UK general election were eventually out this morning. They gave the Tory a comfortable win and an outright majority in the House of Commons. This came as a surprise for anyone who has followed the most recent polls released by YouGov et al, which predicted a very close outcome. Apparently gamblers fared much better, and Mr Cameron has been the gamblers’ favourite to win as far back as February according to a Bloomberg article. They also did better than investors, who seemed to have been taken by surprise by Mr Cameron’s victory and had positioned themselves defensively on a number of companies that would have suffered from a Labour government. For instance, LADLN ( Ladbrokes Plc ), despite having to pay out £2mln on bets placed on a positive outcome for the Conservatives, saw its share climb 9% and its 5-year-risk premium collapse 42.5bps to 286.5bps as short risk positions were trimmed. The company has a large exposure to fixed-odds betting terminals, and Labour’s pledge to crack down on them would have been a serious blow.