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17 October 2019 by jbchevrel

Atlantia (ATLIM) performed okay today, 5y CDS -5bp and stock +1%. The Italian transport minister Paola De Micheli said in an interview with Corriere della Sera that the government will decide on a possible revocation of ATLIM’s motorway concession ASPI “in a few weeks” after concluding an investigation into the Genoa bridge collapse. Ms De Micheli described ATLIM’s commitment to invest in Alitalia as “a good sign” but said the two things “have been, are and will be separate.” Separately Beniamino Gavio the controlling shareholder of SIAS told La Republica, when asked if his group could be part of a potential consortium to invest in the ASPI; "If the government were looking for an industrial partner (for ASPI) we would be available." A full concession revocation cannot be excluded, although there are other more moderate ways to penalize ATLIM (the state could take a stake in ASPI through a state-owned entity, ex: CDP). Mr Gavio’s comments could be a sign that the government is considering such a move alongside an industrial partner in order to bring in some technical expertise and is looking for alternatives to a full concession revocation. Adding to that, the Alitalia situation seems to be also moving in the right way. Indeed, the Italian government is readying €350m in bridge financing for Alitalia. The financing is due to cover 6m of operations. The companies leading the bid to bail out Alitalia on Tuesday reaffirmed their willingness to acquire the bankrupt airline but said more work is needed before they can make a binding offer. Last week PM Conte had said” the government has been clear since the beginning: Alitalia is one thing, Autostrade and the process with regards to the revocation (caducazione) is another thing, the link between the two is unacceptable.” Il Messaggero had reported that the meeting between the Italian industry minister and ATLIM helped appease relations, to the extent that ATLIM participates for Alitalia & confirms its offer by the Oct 15. Which it didn’t just yet. Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane SpA and ATLIM said more details were needed on governance, shareholders and management of the carrier. While waiting for more clarity on this, the 5y CDS of this Baa3wn/BB+n name is at 210bp, right in the middle of the post roll range [ 160bp , 260bp ].